The data suggests caution when backing the Indiana Pacers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as two days rest, the Indiana Pacers are just 19-20-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.0%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record19-20-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size39 games
ROI-7.0%
Units Won-2.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-1-00.0%-4.5%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20162-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20182-2-00.0%-4.5%
20192-0-00.0%+90.9%
20202-3-00.0%-23.6%
20212-0-00.0%+90.9%
20224-2-00.0%+27.3%
20232-6-00.0%-52.3%
20240-2-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Pacers' struggles with two days rest appear rooted in their historically fast-paced, high-energy playing style that thrives on rhythm and momentum. Indiana has consistently ranked among the league's fastest teams in pace over the past decade, and extended breaks can disrupt the natural flow that makes their offense most effective. When forced to sit for multiple days, the team often comes out flat, lacking the aggressive defensive pressure and transition opportunities that define their identity. This pattern becomes more pronounced when considering Indiana's roster construction, which has typically featured younger players and athletic wings who benefit from staying in game rhythm. The extended rest period seems to cool down shooters and disrupt timing on both ends of the floor, particularly affecting their three-point shooting and defensive rotations that require split-second decision-making. The psychological component cannot be ignored either. The Pacers have often been a team that feeds off energy and momentum, and the mental reset that comes with extended rest appears to work against their natural playing temperament rather than providing the physical recovery benefits other teams might experience. This trend carries the most weight when the Pacers are facing teams coming off back-to-backs or single-day rest, creating a motivation and energy mismatch that savvy bettors should monitor closely.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indiana Pacers's ATS record as two days rest?

The Indiana Pacers have an ATS record of 19-20-0 when playing with two days rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 48.7% cover rate over 39 total games.

Is betting on the Indiana Pacers as two days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Indiana Pacers with two days rest has not been profitable, showing a -7.0% ROI over the 10-year period. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Pacers in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Pacers' 48.7% ATS cover rate with two days rest is slightly below the expected 50% break-even point. While not dramatically poor, it still represents underperformance compared to what would be needed for profitability.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.