The data suggests caution when backing the Indiana Pacers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Indiana Pacers are just 22-33-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -23.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +23.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record22-33-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size55 games
ROI-23.6%
Units Won-13.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-4-00.0%-18.2%
20150-4-00.0%-100.0%
20160-2-00.0%-100.0%
20170-4-00.0%-100.0%
20184-5-00.0%-15.2%
20192-1-00.0%+27.3%
20203-2-00.0%+14.6%
20212-6-00.0%-52.3%
20221-1-00.0%-4.5%
20233-4-00.0%-18.2%
20244-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Pacers' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from their historically inconsistent mental approach and tendency to overcorrect after disappointing performances. Indiana has long been a franchise that wears emotions on their sleeve, and when they return home after a road loss, the pressure to immediately bounce back often leads to pressing and forcing plays rather than executing their natural offensive flow. This psychological burden becomes amplified when oddsmakers install them as favorites, creating unrealistic expectations for dominant performances. The Pacers' offensive system relies heavily on ball movement and rhythm, but the urgency to validate their favorite status after a loss frequently disrupts these fundamentals. Players tend to hunt individual shots rather than trust the process, leading to stagnant possessions and easier scoring opportunities for opponents who face less defensive intensity. The recent uptick in form suggests current roster construction may be better equipped to handle these situations, but the underlying psychological patterns remain concerning. Indiana's young core still shows vulnerability to emotional swings, particularly at home where fan expectations run highest. This trend carries the most weight when the Pacers are coming off road losses to inferior competition, as the combination of embarrassment and favorite pressure creates the perfect storm for another disappointing effort.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indiana Pacers's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Indiana Pacers have an ATS record of 22-33-0 (40.0%) as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This means they have failed to cover the spread in 33 of their 55 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Indiana Pacers as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Indiana Pacers as home favorites after a loss has not been profitable. With a -23.6% ROI over this 10-year period, bettors would have lost nearly a quarter of their investment following this strategy.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the typical expectation for home favorites, which generally cover around 50% of the time. The Pacers' 40% ATS rate in this specific situation suggests they consistently struggle to bounce back at home after losses.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.