The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Rockets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs division opponent, the Houston Rockets are just 26-32-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -14.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +14.4%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record26-32-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size58 games
ROI-14.4%
Units Won-8.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-1-00.0%+52.7%
20153-2-00.0%+14.6%
20162-7-00.0%-57.6%
20171-4-00.0%-61.8%
20181-4-00.0%-61.8%
20192-2-00.0%-4.5%
20202-2-00.0%-4.5%
20212-3-00.0%-23.6%
20227-1-00.0%+67.0%
20230-4-00.0%-100.0%
20242-2-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rockets' struggles against division opponents stem from the inherent challenges of playing familiar foes multiple times per season. Southwest Division matchups feature teams that scout each other extensively, leading to tactical adjustments that often neutralize Houston's offensive strengths. The Rockets have historically relied on high-tempo, three-point heavy offenses that become predictable against division rivals who've seen these schemes repeatedly throughout the campaign. Houston's roster construction has also worked against them in divisional play. Their young core lacks the playoff-tested composure needed to execute in high-stakes games where opponents know their tendencies intimately. Division games carry extra weight for playoff positioning, creating pressure situations where inexperienced players tend to revert to predictable patterns rather than making the creative plays that fuel their success against unfamiliar opponents. The coaching staff's tendency to stick with established rotations becomes a liability when facing teams that have already identified and prepared counters to Houston's preferred lineups. Division opponents exploit these predictable substitution patterns and tactical preferences more effectively than teams seeing the Rockets for the first or second time. This trend matters most during the final month of the regular season when division standings directly impact playoff seeding and every possession carries amplified importance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Rockets's ATS record as vs division opponent?

The Houston Rockets have a 26-32-0 ATS record when playing against division opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 44.8% ATS win rate over this 10-year period.

Is betting on the Houston Rockets as vs division opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Rockets against division opponents has not been profitable, showing a -14.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Rockets in divisional matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Rockets' 44.8% ATS win rate against division opponents is below the expected 50% break-even point and likely underperforms the league average. Their -14.4% ROI suggests they consistently fail to cover spreads in these rivalry games.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.