The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Rockets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs conference opponent, the Houston Rockets are just 71-91-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -16.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +16.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record71-91-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size162 games
ROI-16.3%
Units Won-26.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201410-7-00.0%+12.3%
20155-7-00.0%-20.4%
20167-8-00.0%-10.9%
20178-3-00.0%+38.8%
20185-11-00.0%-40.3%
20197-8-00.0%-10.9%
20204-7-00.0%-30.6%
20217-12-00.0%-29.7%
20226-15-00.0%-45.5%
20236-8-00.0%-18.2%
20246-5-00.0%+4.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rockets' struggles against conference opponents stem from their chronic inconsistency in adapting to familiar divisional and conference foes who have extensive scouting reports on their tendencies. Houston's young core, built around developing talent rather than immediate contention, often lacks the veteran leadership needed to execute game plans against teams that know their weaknesses intimately. The franchise's rebuilding philosophy has created a roster construction issue where they prioritize individual development over cohesive team chemistry, making them particularly vulnerable to well-coached conference opponents who can exploit these gaps. Houston's defensive identity has fluctuated dramatically across different seasons, creating predictable patterns that savvy conference teams capitalize on repeatedly. Their offensive system, while explosive at times, tends to become one-dimensional against opponents who've seen their sets multiple times throughout the season. The psychological weight of playing meaningful games within their own conference appears to amplify their inconsistencies, as young players often press when facing teams they'll meet again. For bettors, the key insight lies in monitoring Houston's home/road splits within conference play and their performance following extended breaks, as these factors significantly impact their ability to execute against familiar opponents. This trend carries the most weight during divisional matchups and late-season conference games when playoff positioning intensifies the psychological pressure on their developing roster.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Rockets's ATS record as vs conference opponent?

The Houston Rockets have a 71-91-0 ATS record when playing against conference opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 43.8% ATS win rate over this 10-year period.

Is betting on the Houston Rockets as vs conference opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Rockets against conference opponents has not been profitable, showing a -16.3% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Houston in these matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Rockets' 43.8% ATS win rate against conference opponents is below the typical 50% league average expected in efficient betting markets. Their -16.3% ROI significantly underperforms compared to break-even expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.