Houston Rockets Medium Favorite (-3.5 to -7) Betting Trend

The Rockets' struggles as medium favorites stem from their historically volatile identity as a high-variance team built around three-point shooting and isolation basketball. When laying moderate spreads, Houston often faces opponents who can exploit their defensive inconsistencies and force them into contested shots that don't fall at expected rates. The team's reliance on momentum swings creates a dangerous dynamic where early shooting struggles compound into larger deficits than the spread anticipates. Houston's offensive system, particularly during their analytics-heavy years, prioritized efficiency over consistency. This approach works well as underdogs when variance is your friend, but becomes problematic when expected to control games within a specific margin. Their tendency to either blow out opponents or struggle to pull away creates an uncomfortable middle ground where medium spreads become difficult to cover. The psychological factor cannot be ignored either. Houston has often carried the weight of high expectations, leading to pressing when games don't unfold as anticipated. This manifests in rushed possessions and defensive lapses that allow opponents to hang around longer than the betting market expects. This trend matters most when Houston faces defensively disciplined teams that can limit transition opportunities and force the Rockets into half-court execution.