Houston Rockets Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The Rockets' abysmal performance as large favorites stems from their historically volatile offensive identity and defensive inconsistencies. Houston's reliance on high-variance three-point shooting creates massive swings in game flow that make blowouts unpredictable, even against inferior opponents. When the Rockets get hot from deep, they can build commanding leads quickly, but their tendency to live and die by the three means cold stretches often allow weaker teams to stay competitive or mount comebacks. Houston's fast-paced, analytics-driven approach also works against them in large favorite situations. Their emphasis on efficiency over grinding possessions means they rarely control tempo the way traditional powerhouses do when laying big numbers. Instead of methodically wearing down opponents, the Rockets often engage in shootouts that keep games closer than the spread suggests they should be. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Houston teams have historically shown a tendency to play down to competition, particularly in regular season games where motivation may wane against clearly overmatched opponents. This trend matters most during regular season divisional games and back-to-back situations where the Rockets face teams with significant talent gaps but maximum desperation to compete.