Houston Rockets Home vs Division Rival Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Rockets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Houston Rockets are just 14-18-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -16.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +16.5%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2015 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2016 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2023 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Rockets' struggles against division rivals at home stem from a perfect storm of heightened expectations and tactical familiarity. Houston has historically been a franchise built on offensive firepower and pace, but division opponents see them multiple times per season, allowing coaches to implement specific defensive schemes that neutralize their rhythm. The Toyota Center crowd creates additional pressure in these marquee matchups, often leading to rushed possessions and forced shots when the Rockets fall behind early. Division games carry playoff implications that amplify every possession, creating a more methodical pace that doesn't favor Houston's transition-heavy attack. The Rockets have also shown a tendency to overlook preparation against familiar foes, assuming their talent advantage will prevail at home. This complacency becomes costly when facing teams like San Antonio or Dallas that execute disciplined game plans regardless of venue. The psychological weight of division standings adds another layer, as these games often determine playoff seeding. Houston players frequently press in these moments, abandoning the ball movement that makes them effective and reverting to isolation plays that play into opponents' defensive strengths. This trend matters most during the final two months of the regular season when division standings crystallize and every game carries postseason ramifications.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Houston Rockets's ATS record as home vs division rival?
The Houston Rockets have a 14-18-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 43.8% ATS win rate over 32 games.
Is betting on the Houston Rockets as home vs division rival profitable?
No, betting on the Houston Rockets at home vs division rivals has not been profitable, showing a -16.5% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Houston in these matchups.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is well below the league average of 50% ATS win rate that would be expected over time. The Rockets' 43.8% ATS rate in home division games represents significant underperformance against the spread.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.