The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Rockets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home after 2+ losses, the Houston Rockets are just 104-112-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -8.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +8.1%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record104-112-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size216 games
ROI-8.1%
Units Won-17.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201413-8-00.0%+18.2%
20155-10-00.0%-36.4%
201610-12-00.0%-13.2%
201711-14-00.0%-16.0%
20186-13-00.0%-39.7%
201912-10-00.0%+4.1%
20206-5-00.0%+4.1%
20218-13-00.0%-27.3%
202211-16-00.0%-22.2%
202310-7-00.0%+12.3%
202412-4-00.0%+43.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rockets' struggles as home favorites following multiple losses stem from a psychological pattern that has plagued the franchise across different eras. When Houston drops consecutive games, the team often presses too hard in front of their home crowd, leading to forced shots and defensive breakdowns that make them vulnerable against the spread. This desperation manifests particularly in their offensive execution, where players abandon the systematic ball movement that typically defines their better performances. Houston's coaching staff has historically struggled to manage the emotional weight of bouncing back at home after road struggles. The team tends to overcomplicate their game plan, moving away from their bread-and-butter offensive sets in favor of hero-ball situations that rarely translate to covering spreads. The crowd's expectations amplify this pressure, creating a feedback loop where poor early execution leads to tighter play throughout the game. The recent uptick in performance suggests the current roster may be breaking this historical pattern, but bettors should remain cautious when backing Houston as home chalk following losing streaks. The value often lies in taking the points with their opponents, especially when the spread reflects public perception of a "bounce-back" spot. This trend matters most when Houston returns home as significant favorites after dropping games to quality opponents on the road.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Rockets's ATS record as home after 2+ losses?

The Houston Rockets have an ATS record of 104-112-0 (48.1%) when playing at home after suffering 2 or more consecutive losses from 2014-2024.

Is betting on the Houston Rockets as home after 2+ losses profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Rockets at home after 2+ losses is not profitable, showing a -8.1% ROI over the 10-year period analyzed.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 48.1% ATS win rate is below the expected 50% break-even point and likely underperforms the league average for similar situations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.