The data suggests caution when backing the Houston Rockets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Houston Rockets are just 41-82-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -36.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +36.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record41-82-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size123 games
ROI-36.4%
Units Won-44.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-5-00.0%-45.5%
20153-8-00.0%-47.9%
20164-7-00.0%-30.6%
20175-5-00.0%-4.5%
20185-7-00.0%-20.4%
20197-6-00.0%+2.8%
20203-9-00.0%-52.3%
20214-11-00.0%-49.1%
20224-8-00.0%-36.4%
20232-8-00.0%-61.8%
20242-8-00.0%-61.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rockets' struggles as road favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and their actual road identity. Houston has historically been a team that relies heavily on home crowd energy and familiar surroundings to execute their fast-paced, three-point heavy system effectively. When elevated to favorite status on the road, they're often facing teams that are more desperate and playing with house money, while the Rockets carry the psychological burden of expectations in hostile environments. The franchise's recent rebuilding phases have exacerbated this issue, as young players tend to struggle with the mental aspects of being favored away from home. Houston's offensive system, which depends on rhythm shooting and quick decision-making, becomes less efficient when facing the increased defensive intensity that typically comes when opponents are getting points at home. The Rockets also tend to get complacent in these spots, assuming their talent advantage will naturally translate to covers. For bettors, this presents a clear fade opportunity when Houston is laying points on the road, particularly against teams with strong home court advantages or those in desperate situations. This trend matters most when the Rockets are short road favorites of 3.5 points or less against teams fighting for playoff positioning.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Houston Rockets's ATS record as away favorite?

The Houston Rockets have a 41-82-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 33.3% of games. This represents 123 total games where they were favored on the road.

Is betting on the Houston Rockets as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Houston Rockets as away favorites is not profitable, with a -36.4% ROI and 0.0% win rate. This means consistent losses for bettors backing Houston in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Rockets' 33.3% cover rate as road favorites indicates they consistently underperform expectations in this role.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.