Golden State Warriors Large Underdog (+7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Golden State Warriors in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Golden State Warriors hold a record of 67-34-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +26.6% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $27 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 9-2-0 | 0.0% | +56.2% |
| 2015 | 5-4-0 | 0.0% | +6.1% |
| 2016 | 6-5-0 | 0.0% | +4.1% |
| 2017 | 4-3-0 | 0.0% | +9.1% |
| 2018 | 5-2-0 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2019 | 7-3-0 | 0.0% | +33.6% |
| 2020 | 7-5-0 | 0.0% | +11.4% |
| 2021 | 8-2-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2022 | 5-3-0 | 0.0% | +19.3% |
| 2023 | 8-2-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2024 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Warriors' exceptional performance as large underdogs stems from their unique organizational culture and strategic adaptability. When facing significant point spreads, Golden State benefits from reduced pressure and the freedom to play their natural up-tempo style without the weight of expectations. Their championship pedigree means they rarely panic in adverse situations, while their offensive system built around ball movement and three-point shooting can quickly erase large deficits. The psychological element cannot be understated - this franchise has conditioned itself to thrive when doubted. Steve Kerr's coaching philosophy emphasizes process over results, allowing players to maintain confidence even when oddsmakers heavily favor opponents. The Warriors' depth and veteran leadership also shine in these spots, as role players often step up when the team needs unexpected contributions. Their three-point variance creates natural volatility that works in their favor as large dogs. When shots fall, they can turn blowouts into competitive games or outright victories within minutes. The pace of their offense also means more possessions, increasing opportunities to cover spreads through volume alone. This trend matters most early in seasons when the Warriors are still finding their rhythm, or during stretches when key players return from injury and the market hasn't fully adjusted to their improved roster strength.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Golden State Warriors's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?
The Golden State Warriors have an outstanding 67-34-0 ATS record as large underdogs (+7.5 or more) from 2014-2024. This represents a 66.3% ATS win rate over 101 games in this situation.
Is betting on the Golden State Warriors as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Warriors as large underdogs has been highly profitable with a 26.6% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite their 0.0% straight-up win rate in these games, they consistently covered the spread at a rate well above the typical 52.4% needed to break even.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance significantly exceeds league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS in any given situation. The Warriors' 66.3% ATS rate as large underdogs is exceptional and reflects their ability to keep games closer than expected even when heavily favored against.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.