The data suggests caution when backing the Golden State Warriors in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Golden State Warriors are just 82-127-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -25.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +25.1%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record82-127-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size209 games
ROI-25.1%
Units Won-52.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201412-12-00.0%-4.5%
20155-10-00.0%-36.4%
20164-12-00.0%-52.3%
20175-10-00.0%-36.4%
20185-15-00.0%-52.3%
201911-6-00.0%+23.5%
20209-15-00.0%-28.4%
20215-9-00.0%-31.8%
202212-12-00.0%-4.5%
20236-16-00.0%-47.9%
20248-10-00.0%-15.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Warriors' struggles as favorites stem from their unique position as a marquee franchise that consistently draws inflated betting lines. When Golden State enters games as chalk, oddsmakers often price in their championship pedigree and star power, creating situations where the spread doesn't accurately reflect game-specific circumstances. The team's reliance on three-point shooting creates inherent volatility - even elite shooters like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson can experience cold stretches that turn comfortable leads into nail-biters or worse. Golden State's fast-paced, high-scoring style also works against them in favorite situations. Their willingness to engage in shootouts means they rarely blow teams out by massive margins, even when clearly superior. Opponents often stay within striking distance due to the Warriors' tendency to trade baskets rather than grind out possessions defensively. This creates frequent backdoor cover scenarios where underdogs hit late shots to sneak under inflated spreads. The psychological element cannot be ignored - teams consistently bring their best effort against the Warriors, knowing a win over Golden State carries significant weight. This "championship hangover" effect means every opponent treats Warriors games as statement opportunities. This trend matters most when Golden State is laying large spreads at home against motivated divisional opponents or teams fighting for playoff positioning.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Golden State Warriors's ATS record as as favorite?

The Golden State Warriors have an ATS record of 82-127-0 when favored from 2014-2024. This represents a 39.2% ATS win rate over 209 games as favorites.

Is betting on the Golden State Warriors as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Golden State Warriors as favorites has not been profitable. The team shows a -25.1% ROI, meaning bettors would have lost approximately 25 cents for every dollar wagered over this period.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Warriors' 39.2% ATS win rate as favorites is significantly below the typical 50% league average. Their -25.1% ROI indicates they consistently fail to cover spreads when expected to win by oddsmakers.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.