The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as two days rest, the Denver Nuggets are just 16-22-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -19.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +19.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record16-22-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size38 games
ROI-19.6%
Units Won-7.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-0-00.0%+90.9%
20153-1-00.0%+43.2%
20164-2-00.0%+27.3%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20182-3-00.0%-23.6%
20192-2-00.0%-4.5%
20200-5-00.0%-100.0%
20211-4-00.0%-61.8%
20231-1-00.0%-4.5%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' struggles with two days rest appear rooted in their unique roster construction and playing style under Mike Malone. Denver relies heavily on Nikola Jokic's exceptional conditioning and basketball IQ to orchestrate their offense, but the extended break seems to disrupt the team's natural rhythm rather than provide beneficial recovery. Unlike teams that benefit from extra preparation time, the Nuggets operate best when their complex passing schemes and timing are sharp from regular game action. Denver's altitude advantage at home becomes less relevant with two days rest, as visiting teams have additional time to acclimate to the thin air. The Nuggets also tend to be a mentally relaxed group that can lose focus during extended breaks, particularly against teams they're expected to handle easily. Their recent coaching staff has emphasized maintaining intensity game-to-game, but the extra day often leads to flat performances where they struggle to match opponents' energy levels. The most actionable insight for bettors is to target Denver's opponents when the Nuggets are laying points with two days rest, especially against motivated underdogs. This trend matters most during the regular season when Denver faces teams fighting for playoff positioning or struggling squads desperate for statement wins.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as two days rest?

The Denver Nuggets have a 16-22-0 ATS record when playing with two days rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 42.1% ATS win rate over 38 games.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as two days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets with two days rest has not been profitable, showing a -19.6% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents consistent losses for bettors backing Denver in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Nuggets' 42.1% ATS win rate with two days rest is significantly below the expected 50% break-even point. This performance is notably poor compared to typical league averages for teams in similar rest situations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.