Denver Nuggets Primetime Underdog Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as primetime underdog, the Denver Nuggets hold a record of 112-80-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +11.4% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $22 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 9-4-0 | 0.0% | +32.2% |
| 2015 | 11-10-0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 7-11-0 | 0.0% | -25.8% |
| 2017 | 12-8-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2018 | 11-6-0 | 0.0% | +23.5% |
| 2019 | 7-5-0 | 0.0% | +11.4% |
| 2020 | 9-7-0 | 0.0% | +7.4% |
| 2021 | 14-6-0 | 0.0% | +33.6% |
| 2022 | 10-7-0 | 0.0% | +12.3% |
| 2023 | 13-9-0 | 0.0% | +12.8% |
| 2024 | 9-7-0 | 0.0% | +7.4% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Nuggets' success as primetime underdogs stems from their unique roster construction and coaching philosophy that thrives when expectations are lowered. Denver's high-altitude home advantage becomes amplified during nationally televised games, as visiting teams often struggle with the thin air while dealing with the pressure of a spotlight performance. The team's ball-movement offense, anchored by Nikola Jokic's exceptional court vision, tends to exploit defenses that may be more focused on individual matchups rather than team concepts during marquee matchups. Denver's culture under Michael Malone emphasizes resilience and collective effort over star power, making them particularly dangerous when oddsmakers undervalue their cohesion. The franchise has historically attracted players who embrace the underdog mentality, from the Carmelo Anthony era through today's championship core. Their systematic approach to basketball often catches opponents off-guard in high-profile games where teams might rely more heavily on talent than execution. Bettors should target Denver as primetime underdogs specifically when they're facing teams with superior individual talent but questionable chemistry, as the Nuggets' methodical style can neutralize athletic advantages. This trend holds the most value during the regular season when motivation levels vary significantly between contending teams, particularly in nationally televised road games where Denver's veteran leadership shines brightest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as primetime underdog?
The Denver Nuggets have an ATS record of 112-80-0 (58.3%) when playing as primetime underdogs from 2014-2024. This means they covered the spread in 112 out of 192 games in this situation.
Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as primetime underdog profitable?
Yes, betting on the Denver Nuggets as primetime underdogs has been profitable with an 11.4% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. Despite winning only 0.0% of games straight up, their strong ATS performance has generated consistent value for bettors.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Nuggets' 58.3% ATS rate as primetime underdogs significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50%. Their 11.4% ROI also exceeds what most teams deliver in similar underdog situations, making this a historically strong betting trend.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.