Denver Nuggets Away Underdog After a Win Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away underdog after a win, the Denver Nuggets hold a record of 30-15-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +27.3% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $12 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2016 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2017 | 6-2-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2018 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2020 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 5-3-0 | 0.0% | +19.3% |
| 2022 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2023 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2024 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Nuggets' exceptional performance as road underdogs following victories stems from their unique psychological makeup and strategic advantages under Nikola Jokic's leadership. Denver thrives when expectations are lowered, as the underdog tag allows them to play with house money while maintaining the confidence boost from their previous win. Jokic's cerebral approach to the game becomes even more pronounced on the road, where his ability to read defenses and make split-second adjustments gives Denver a tactical edge that oddsmakers consistently undervalue. The team's altitude-trained conditioning provides a significant advantage when traveling to lower elevations, particularly when they're riding momentum from a recent victory. Denver's role players historically step up in these spots, knowing they're expected to lose, which creates the perfect storm for covering spreads. The Nuggets' offensive system, built around Jokic's playmaking, travels exceptionally well and often catches opponents off-guard when Denver enters as the perceived inferior team. This trend carries the most weight when Denver faces quality opponents on the road after impressive home victories, particularly against Western Conference rivals where the underdog line might be inflated due to recent opponent strength rather than Denver's true capabilities.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as away underdog after a win?
The Denver Nuggets have an ATS record of 30-15-0 (66.7%) when playing as away underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This represents 45 total games over the 10-year period.
Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as away underdog after a win profitable?
Yes, betting on the Denver Nuggets as away underdogs after a win has been highly profitable with a 27.3% ROI. Despite covering the spread at a 66.7% rate, the strong ATS performance has generated significant returns for bettors.
How does this compare to the league average?
This 66.7% ATS win rate significantly outperforms typical league averages, which hover around 50% for most situational trends. The 27.3% ROI indicates this has been one of the more profitable betting situations in the NBA over this timeframe.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.