The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Nuggets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away games, the Denver Nuggets are just 101-103-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -5.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +5.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record101-103-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size204 games
ROI-5.5%
Units Won-11.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20148-10-00.0%-15.2%
20154-6-00.0%-23.6%
201611-9-00.0%+5.0%
20178-12-00.0%-23.6%
20186-8-00.0%-18.2%
201911-12-00.0%-8.7%
20206-11-00.0%-32.6%
202117-8-00.0%+29.8%
20227-3-00.0%+33.6%
202312-12-00.0%-4.5%
202411-12-00.0%-8.7%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nuggets' mediocre road ATS performance stems largely from their altitude-dependent playing style and roster construction. Denver's home-court advantage at 5,280 feet above sea level creates a unique conditioning edge that simply doesn't translate when playing at lower altitudes. Their pace-heavy offensive system, built around Nikola Jokic's court vision and quick ball movement, often loses its rhythm in hostile environments where communication becomes more difficult. Denver's defensive struggles on the road compound this issue. The team's defensive scheme relies heavily on rotations and help defense, which breaks down more frequently away from home due to crowd noise disrupting their coordination. Additionally, the Nuggets have historically been a team that feeds off momentum and home crowd energy, making them vulnerable to early deficits on the road where they can't rely on their fans to provide emotional lift. The psychological factor cannot be overlooked either. Denver players have openly discussed the comfort of sleeping in their own beds at altitude, and the travel fatigue from consistently flying to lower elevations affects their legs, particularly impacting their three-point shooting accuracy. This trend matters most when Denver faces elite defensive teams on the road, particularly in playoff-atmosphere games where the crowd factor is amplified and their communication issues become most pronounced.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Nuggets's ATS record as away games?

The Denver Nuggets have a 101-103-0 ATS record in away games from 2014-2024, covering the spread in 49.5% of their road contests. This represents a slightly below-average performance against the spread when playing away from home.

Is betting on the Denver Nuggets as away games profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Nuggets in away games has not been profitable, showing a -5.5% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. This negative return indicates that consistently backing the Nuggets on the road would have resulted in losses for bettors.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Nuggets' 49.5% ATS win rate in away games is slightly below the typical 50% expectation for spread betting. Their -5.5% ROI is worse than break-even performance, indicating below-average value compared to league standards.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.