The data suggests caution when backing the Dallas Mavericks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as on a 3+ game win streak, the Dallas Mavericks are just 219-233-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -7.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +7.5%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record219-233-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size452 games
ROI-7.5%
Units Won-33.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201418-27-00.0%-23.6%
201515-20-00.0%-18.2%
201625-18-00.0%+11.0%
201725-29-00.0%-11.6%
201822-26-00.0%-12.5%
20195-24-00.0%-67.1%
202025-10-00.0%+36.4%
202116-18-00.0%-10.2%
202225-17-00.0%+13.6%
202320-19-00.0%-2.1%
202423-25-00.0%-8.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mavericks' struggles against the spread during extended winning streaks reflect a classic case of market overreaction combined with Dallas's historically inconsistent defensive identity. When the Mavs string together multiple victories, oddsmakers and the betting public tend to inflate their perceived value, creating inflated lines that don't account for the team's tendency to experience defensive lapses during successful runs. This pattern has been particularly pronounced during the Luka Dončić era, where offensive explosions can mask underlying defensive vulnerabilities that opponents eventually exploit. Dallas has traditionally been a team that relies heavily on offensive rhythm and star power, making them susceptible to letdown spots when expectations rise. Their best seasons in this trend coincided with stronger defensive personnel and coaching adjustments, while their worst performances came during transition periods with roster instability. The franchise's propensity for close games means that even during winning streaks, they often fail to cover spreads that assume dominant performances. Bettors should be particularly cautious backing Dallas ATS when they've won three or more straight games against teams with strong offensive systems, as these matchups often become high-scoring affairs where the Mavericks' defensive inconsistencies get exposed. This trend carries the most weight during regular season stretches in January and February when motivation can wane.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dallas Mavericks's ATS record as on a 3+ game win streak?

The Dallas Mavericks have gone 219-233-0 against the spread when on a 3+ game win streak from 2014-2024. This represents a 48.5% ATS win rate over 452 games.

Is betting on the Dallas Mavericks as on a 3+ game win streak profitable?

No, betting on the Mavericks when on a 3+ game win streak has not been profitable, showing a -7.5% ROI. Bettors would have lost money consistently following this trend over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 48.5% ATS rate is below the typical 50% league average for ATS performance. The Mavericks have consistently failed to cover spreads when riding win streaks, making them a fade candidate in this situation.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.