The public often underestimates the Dallas Mavericks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Dallas Mavericks hold a record of 71-29-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +35.5% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $36 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record71-29-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size100 games
ROI+35.5%
Units Won+35.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20148-4-00.0%+27.3%
20156-3-00.0%+27.3%
20168-1-00.0%+69.7%
20175-6-00.0%-13.2%
20188-2-00.0%+52.7%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
202014-1-00.0%+78.2%
20214-2-00.0%+27.3%
20228-0-00.0%+90.9%
20236-3-00.0%+27.3%
20244-5-00.0%-15.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mavericks' exceptional performance as large underdogs stems from their offensive philosophy and personnel makeup that creates unique advantages when expectations are low. Dallas has consistently built around elite offensive creators like Dirk Nowitzki and Luka Dončić, players who can single-handedly shift game dynamics regardless of opponent strength. When facing superior teams, the Mavericks often benefit from reduced defensive attention on role players, as opponents focus heavily on neutralizing their primary stars. The psychological component cannot be understated. Dallas thrives in the underdog role, particularly when their star players embrace the challenge of proving doubters wrong. The franchise culture, established during the Nowitzki era and continued under Dončić, emphasizes resilience and clutch performance. Their offensive system, predicated on high-percentage shots and late-game execution, becomes even more potent when opponents potentially overlook them or play with less urgency early in games. The key insight for bettors is recognizing when Dallas faces elite teams during stretches where their role players are shooting well from three-point range. The Mavericks' ability to stay competitive through superior offensive efficiency makes them particularly dangerous when getting significant points. This trend matters most during playoff races when Dallas faces top-tier opponents who might be looking ahead or managing rest for key players.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dallas Mavericks's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The Dallas Mavericks have a 71-29-0 ATS record when they are large underdogs (+7.5 or more) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 71% ATS win rate over 100 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Dallas Mavericks as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Dallas Mavericks as large underdogs has been highly profitable with a 35.5% ROI from 2014-2024. Their 71% ATS win rate in these spots significantly exceeds the breakeven point needed for profitability.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is exceptional compared to league averages, as most teams cover around 50% ATS in any given situation. The Mavericks' 71% ATS rate as large underdogs is well above typical expectations and represents one of the strongest situational trends in the NBA.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.