Dallas Mavericks Home Underdog After a Win Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Dallas Mavericks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Dallas Mavericks hold a record of 30-22-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +10.1% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $5 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 5-2-0 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2017 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2018 | 3-4-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2019 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2020 | 7-1-0 | 0.0% | +67.0% |
| 2021 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2023 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2024 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Mavericks' success as home underdogs following victories stems from their unique organizational culture and roster construction patterns over the past decade. Dallas has consistently built teams around high-basketball-IQ players who excel at making in-game adjustments, particularly when facing disrespect from oddsmakers. When they're underdogs at home after a win, it typically indicates the betting market is overreacting to their opponent's perceived superiority while undervaluing Dallas's momentum and home-court execution. Mark Cuban's franchise has historically thrived on proving doubters wrong, and this psychological edge becomes amplified when they're catching points at American Airlines Center with confidence from a recent victory. The Mavericks' offensive system, whether built around Dirk Nowitzki's era or Luka Dončić's current reign, has consistently generated efficient looks against teams that might be overlooking them due to the underdog status. The key betting insight here is recognizing when Dallas faces a quality opponent that the market respects more than their recent form suggests they should. This scenario often creates inflated lines that don't account for the Mavericks' home-court advantages and their tendency to elevate their play when disrespected. This trend carries the most weight when Dallas is coming off a statement win against a playoff-caliber team, suggesting their confidence and execution are peaking at the right moment.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dallas Mavericks's ATS record as home underdog after a win?
The Dallas Mavericks have a 30-22-0 ATS record when playing as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a strong 57.7% ATS win rate over 52 games.
Is betting on the Dallas Mavericks as home underdog after a win profitable?
Yes, betting on the Dallas Mavericks as home underdogs after a win has been profitable with a 10.1% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite the positive ROI, their straight-up win rate in these situations is 0.0%.
How does this compare to the league average?
This trend significantly outperforms typical expectations, as most teams struggle to cover spreads as home underdogs. The 57.7% ATS rate and 10.1% ROI indicate the Mavericks have been undervalued by oddsmakers in this specific situation.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.