The data suggests caution when backing the Dallas Mavericks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Dallas Mavericks are just 39-82-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -38.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +38.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record39-82-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size121 games
ROI-38.5%
Units Won-46.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-8-00.0%-61.8%
20153-6-00.0%-36.4%
20166-7-00.0%-11.9%
20175-8-00.0%-26.6%
20183-9-00.0%-52.3%
20191-9-00.0%-80.9%
20202-6-00.0%-52.3%
20213-6-00.0%-36.4%
20226-10-00.0%-28.4%
20234-7-00.0%-30.6%
20244-6-00.0%-23.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Mavericks' struggles as road favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and their actual road identity. Dallas has historically been a team that thrives on the energy and rhythm of their home court, particularly with their passionate fanbase creating momentum swings. When they travel as favorites, they're expected to impose their will in hostile environments, but the Mavericks have consistently shown they're more reactive than proactive on the road. Their offensive system, which relies heavily on ball movement and three-point shooting, becomes less efficient in road environments where communication breaks down and contested shots increase. The team's defensive inconsistency is magnified when they can't rely on crowd energy to fuel stops, leading to the kind of back-and-forth games where underdogs can steal covers late. Dallas also has a tendency to play down to competition level, particularly when facing teams with nothing to lose at home. The psychological burden of being favored on the road appears to weigh heavily on this franchise, creating tentative play in crucial moments. Bettors should strongly consider fading Dallas when they're road chalk, especially against desperate home teams or in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds competitive games. This trend carries the most weight in the middle portion of the season when road fatigue peaks and opponent motivation remains high.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dallas Mavericks's ATS record as away favorite?

The Dallas Mavericks have a 39-82-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 32.2% of games. This represents 121 total games where Dallas was favored on the road.

Is betting on the Dallas Mavericks as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Dallas Mavericks as away favorites is not profitable, with a -38.5% ROI and 0.0% win rate. This trend has been consistently unprofitable over the 10-year period from 2014-2024.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as away favorites typically cover around 48-50% of the time. The Mavericks' 32.2% ATS rate as road favorites is well below standard expectations for favored teams.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.