Chicago Bulls Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago Bulls in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Chicago Bulls are just 26-63-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -44.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +44.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 5-8-0 | 0.0% | -26.6% |
| 2015 | 5-2-0 | 0.0% | +36.4% |
| 2016 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2017 | 1-7-0 | 0.0% | -76.1% |
| 2018 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2020 | 3-6-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2021 | 3-7-0 | 0.0% | -42.7% |
| 2022 | 2-10-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2023 | 1-8-0 | 0.0% | -78.8% |
| 2024 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Chicago Bulls' struggles as large favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and organizational reality during their post-championship decline. When oddsmakers install the Bulls as hefty favorites, they're often overvaluing the franchise's historical prestige and underestimating how rebuilding teams respond to pressure situations. The Bulls have consistently lacked the veteran leadership and offensive consistency needed to put away inferior opponents, instead playing down to competition levels. Chicago's tendency to experiment with rotations and development-focused lineups becomes particularly problematic in blowout spots. Young players pressing to prove themselves often abandon team concepts, leading to sloppy execution against motivated underdogs who view games against storied franchises as statement opportunities. The Bulls' defensive intensity has historically waned when they believe games should be easy, creating backdoor cover situations that devastate large spread bets. The psychological burden of being expected to dominate has repeatedly exposed Chicago's lack of killer instinct during their rebuilding years. Teams fighting for respect consistently bring maximum effort against the Bulls, while Chicago approaches these matchups with misplaced confidence. This trend matters most when the Bulls face bottom-tier opponents at home, where inflated spreads meet complacent attitudes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Chicago Bulls's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?
The Chicago Bulls have a 26-63-0 ATS record when favored by 7.5+ points from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 29.2% of these games. This represents 89 total games where they were large favorites.
Is betting on the Chicago Bulls as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?
No, betting on the Chicago Bulls as large favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -44.2% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost nearly half their investment following this strategy consistently.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most NBA teams cover large spreads around 45-50% of the time. The Bulls' 29.2% cover rate as large favorites ranks among the worst in the league during this period.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.