The data suggests caution when backing the Charlotte Hornets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small favorite (-1 to -3), the Charlotte Hornets are just 16-20-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -15.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +15.2%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record16-20-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size36 games
ROI-15.2%
Units Won-5.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-3-00.0%+9.1%
20151-4-00.0%-61.8%
20161-1-00.0%-4.5%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20182-3-00.0%-23.6%
20192-1-00.0%+27.3%
20200-2-00.0%-100.0%
20211-1-00.0%-4.5%
20221-0-00.0%+90.9%
20232-4-00.0%-36.4%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Hornets' struggles as small favorites stem from their franchise's inherent identity crisis between talent and execution. Charlotte has historically operated as a team caught between rebuilding and competing, creating a psychological dynamic where they often fail to impose their will against supposedly inferior opponents. When laying small spreads, the Hornets frequently play down to their competition's level rather than asserting the dominance that the betting market expects. This pattern reflects Charlotte's organizational tendency to lack killer instinct in winnable games. The franchise has rarely sustained periods of true contention, meaning their players haven't developed the mental fortitude required to consistently close out games they're expected to win. Small favorite situations demand a team to execute with precision and maintain focus for 48 minutes, qualities that have eluded Charlotte across different roster iterations. The Hornets' young core compounds this issue, as inexperienced players often struggle with the pressure of meeting expectations rather than playing as underdogs with nothing to lose. Their offensive system, typically reliant on pace and transition opportunities, becomes less effective when opponents slow the game down and force Charlotte into half-court execution. This trend matters most during home games against sub-.500 opponents, where the Hornets' psychological disadvantage as small favorites becomes most pronounced.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Charlotte Hornets's ATS record as small favorite (-1 to -3)?

The Charlotte Hornets have a 16-20-0 ATS record as small favorites (-1 to -3 points) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 44.4% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the Charlotte Hornets as small favorite (-1 to -3) profitable?

No, betting on the Charlotte Hornets as small favorites (-1 to -3) is not profitable, showing a -15.2% ROI. This poor performance indicates consistent failure to cover the spread in close games where they're favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Hornets' 44.4% ATS win rate as small favorites is significantly below the typical league average of around 50% for this betting situation. Their -15.2% ROI demonstrates particularly poor performance compared to league norms.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.