The data suggests caution when backing the Charlotte Hornets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Charlotte Hornets are just 26-51-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -35.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +35.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record26-51-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size77 games
ROI-35.5%
Units Won-27.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-3-00.0%-52.3%
20155-5-00.0%-4.5%
20161-7-00.0%-76.1%
20173-6-00.0%-36.4%
20183-4-00.0%-18.2%
20194-3-00.0%+9.1%
20203-6-00.0%-36.4%
20210-3-00.0%-100.0%
20224-5-00.0%-15.2%
20232-7-00.0%-57.6%
20240-2-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Hornets' struggles as large favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between their roster construction and the requirements of closing out games decisively. Charlotte has historically built around explosive offensive talent like Kemba Walker and LaMelo Ball, but these high-variance lineups often lack the defensive consistency and veteran leadership needed to maintain large leads. When favored heavily, the Hornets face an expectation to control games from start to finish, something their young, offense-first core struggles to execute. Charlotte's fast-paced style works against them in blowout situations. Their tendency to play up or down to competition means they rarely sustain the killer instinct required to cover large spreads. The team's defensive lapses become magnified when they're expected to dominate, as opponents often find renewed energy against a favored Hornets squad that can appear disinterested or overconfident. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Charlotte's franchise history lacks the championship culture that breeds consistent dominance, making them prone to letdown spots when the betting market expects them to steamroll inferior competition. Bettors should be particularly wary of backing the Hornets as large home favorites against struggling teams, where the combination of complacency and their defensive limitations creates the perfect storm for backdoor covers.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Charlotte Hornets's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?

The Charlotte Hornets have a 26-51-0 ATS record when favored by 7.5+ points from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 26 of 77 games. This represents a 33.8% ATS win rate as large favorites.

Is betting on the Charlotte Hornets as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?

No, betting on the Charlotte Hornets as large favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -35.5% ROI from 2014-2024. The team has failed to cover the spread in 66% of games when favored by 7.5+ points.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as NBA teams typically cover around 50% of spreads regardless of point spread. The Hornets' 33.8% cover rate as large favorites is well below this standard.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.