Brooklyn Nets Small Favorite (-1 to -3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Brooklyn Nets in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small favorite (-1 to -3), the Brooklyn Nets are just 18-22-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -14.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +14.1%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2015 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2016 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2017 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2018 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2019 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2021 | 2-5-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2022 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2023 | 3-4-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Nets' struggles as small favorites stem from their inconsistent identity and tendency to play down to competition. Brooklyn has historically been a franchise caught between rebuilding phases and playoff pushes, creating a team culture that lacks the killer instinct needed to cover tight spreads against inferior opponents. When favored by just a few points, the Nets often approach games with less urgency than required, allowing supposedly weaker teams to hang around and backdoor cover. Brooklyn's defensive inconsistencies become magnified in small favorite situations. The team frequently relies on offensive firepower to mask defensive lapses, but when facing teams with less talent, they can't simply outscore their problems. This leads to closer-than-expected games where the Nets win but fail to cover modest spreads. Their transition defense, in particular, has been vulnerable throughout various roster iterations, giving underdogs easy scoring opportunities that keep games within the number. The psychological aspect cannot be ignored either. Brooklyn players have shown a pattern of relaxing when expected to win comfortably, treating these games as tune-ups rather than must-win situations. This complacency typically manifests in the second and third quarters when focus wanes. This trend matters most when Brooklyn faces sub-.500 teams at home during non-nationally televised games, where motivation levels historically dip furthest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Brooklyn Nets's ATS record as small favorite (-1 to -3)?
The Brooklyn Nets have an 18-22-0 ATS record as small favorites (-1 to -3 points) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 45% ATS win rate in these situations.
Is betting on the Brooklyn Nets as small favorite (-1 to -3) profitable?
No, betting on the Brooklyn Nets as small favorites is not profitable, showing a -14.1% ROI. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Nets in these spots over the 10-year period.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Nets' 45% ATS win rate as small favorites is significantly below the typical league average of around 50% for ATS performance. Their -14.1% ROI indicates they consistently fail to cover spreads in close games where they're favored.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.