The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Hawks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Atlanta Hawks are just 11-18-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -27.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +27.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record11-18-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size29 games
ROI-27.6%
Units Won-8.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-1-00.0%-4.5%
20153-5-00.0%-28.4%
20160-2-00.0%-100.0%
20182-1-00.0%+27.3%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
20200-2-00.0%-100.0%
20211-1-00.0%-4.5%
20221-3-00.0%-52.3%
20232-0-00.0%+90.9%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Hawks' struggles as small underdogs stem from their identity crisis in close games where they're expected to compete but not necessarily win. Atlanta has historically been a team that either dominates weaker opponents or gets blown out by superior teams, leaving them poorly equipped for the mental grind of tight contests where they're slight underdogs. Their offensive system, built around high-usage creators like Trae Young, tends to become predictable in crunch time situations. When facing teams of similar caliber, opponents can more easily gameplan for Young's isolation-heavy approach, forcing Atlanta into contested shots late in games. The Hawks also lack the defensive versatility needed to make key stops when games hang in the balance, particularly against teams with multiple scoring threats. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Small underdog spots often reflect games where Atlanta should theoretically compete, creating pressure to perform that the team hasn't handled well historically. Their young core tends to press in these moments rather than execute within their system. This trend carries the most weight when Atlanta faces playoff-contending teams at home, where the expectation to compete intensifies the psychological pressure that has consistently undermined their small underdog performance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Atlanta Hawks's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?

The Atlanta Hawks have an 11-18-0 ATS record as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 37.9% ATS win rate over 29 games in this betting situation.

Is betting on the Atlanta Hawks as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?

No, betting on the Atlanta Hawks as small underdogs has not been profitable, with a -27.6% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost significant money consistently backing Atlanta in these close spread situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the expected 50% ATS rate for any team situation. The Hawks' 37.9% ATS win rate as small underdogs represents a significant underperformance compared to typical betting expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.