The data suggests caution when backing the Washington Nationals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs division opponent, the Washington Nationals are just 131-144-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -9.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +9.1%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record131-144-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size276 games
ROI-9.1%
Units Won-24.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201415-10-00.0%+14.6%
20158-19-00.0%-43.4%
201612-13-00.0%-8.4%
201710-13-00.0%-17.0%
20187-14-00.0%-36.4%
201916-7-00.0%+32.8%
202017-12-10.0%+11.9%
20219-9-00.0%-4.5%
202214-17-00.0%-13.8%
20236-12-00.0%-36.4%
202417-18-00.0%-7.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nationals' struggles against divisional opponents stem from the inherent challenges of playing within the competitive NL East, where familiarity breeds both contempt and strategic advantages for opposing teams. Division rivals see Washington's pitching staff multiple times throughout the season, allowing them to develop detailed scouting reports and exploit weaknesses that become more pronounced with repeated exposure. The Nationals have historically relied on power hitting and strong starting pitching, but these strengths become neutralized when facing teams that have extensive video study and can make precise adjustments. Washington's organizational approach has often emphasized building for peak performance rather than consistent divisional dominance, as evidenced by their championship run mentality. This creates a feast-or-famine dynamic where the team either overwhelms opponents with superior talent or falls short when that talent gap narrows through familiarity. The NL East's competitive balance means most divisional games carry playoff implications, creating pressure situations where the Nationals have historically underperformed relative to expectations. Bettors should particularly fade the Nationals as favorites in divisional matchups during the middle months of the season when opposing teams have gathered sufficient data to exploit Washington's tendencies. This trend carries the most weight in June through August divisional series.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Nationals's ATS record as vs division opponent?

The Washington Nationals have a 131-144-1 ATS record when playing against division opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 47.6% ATS win rate over that 11-year period.

Is betting on the Washington Nationals as vs division opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Washington Nationals against division opponents has not been profitable. The team has posted a -9.1% ROI, meaning bettors would have lost approximately 9 cents for every dollar wagered.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the typical league average of around 50% ATS. The Nationals' 47.6% ATS win rate against division rivals indicates they have consistently failed to cover spreads in these matchups.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.