Washington Nationals Small Underdog (+1 to +3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Washington Nationals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Washington Nationals hold a record of 50-21-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +34.4% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $25 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 8-2-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2015 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2016 | 9-2-0 | 0.0% | +56.2% |
| 2017 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2018 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2019 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2020 | 6-4-1 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2021 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2022 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2023 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2024 | 8-2-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Nationals' exceptional performance as small underdogs stems from their organizational DNA as a team built to compete rather than rebuild. When priced between +1 and +3, Washington typically finds itself in competitive matchups where their veteran leadership and playoff-tested core can leverage experience against supposedly superior opponents. This narrow underdog range often reflects games where the betting market slightly favors the opposition due to recent form or matchup concerns, but fails to account for Washington's ability to elevate their play when expectations are modest. The psychological element cannot be understated. This franchise has historically thrived when counted out, most notably during their 2019 World Series run where they overcame multiple elimination scenarios. Small underdog spots create the perfect storm of reduced pressure while maintaining competitive stakes, allowing players like Juan Soto and the pitching staff to perform without the weight of heavy favorite expectations. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Washington's small underdog spots often coincide with road games against quality opponents where the market overvalues home field advantage or recent momentum. This trend carries the most weight during divisional play and interleague series where familiarity breeds competitive balance, making those tight lines particularly exploitable.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Washington Nationals's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?
The Washington Nationals have gone 50-21-1 against the spread (ATS) when listed as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This represents a strong 70.4% ATS win rate over 72 total games in this situation.
Is betting on the Washington Nationals as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Washington Nationals as small underdogs (+1 to +3) has been highly profitable with a 34.4% return on investment (ROI). This exceptional performance over 11 seasons makes it one of the most profitable betting trends for the franchise.
How does this compare to the league average?
This 70.4% ATS win rate significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for ATS records. The 34.4% ROI is exceptionally high compared to the average sports bettor's expected return, making this a standout trend in MLB betting.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.