The data suggests caution when backing the Washington Nationals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as one day rest, the Washington Nationals are just 73-89-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -14.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +14.0%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record73-89-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size162 games
ROI-14.0%
Units Won-22.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201412-8-00.0%+14.6%
20157-8-00.0%-10.9%
20165-5-00.0%-4.5%
20175-8-00.0%-26.6%
20183-14-00.0%-66.3%
201910-9-00.0%+0.5%
202011-6-00.0%+23.5%
20215-9-00.0%-31.8%
20225-9-00.0%-31.8%
20236-5-00.0%+4.1%
20244-8-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nationals' struggles on one day of rest stem from their organizational approach to roster management and pitching depth issues that have persisted across multiple seasons. Washington has historically operated with a rotation-heavy philosophy, relying on their starters to eat innings rather than building deep bullpen depth. When forced into abbreviated rest scenarios, this strategy backfires as their starters lose effectiveness and the already-taxed relief corps gets overexposed. The team's analytical approach also works against them in these spots. The Nationals have been among the more aggressive franchises in using advanced metrics to optimize matchups and defensive positioning, but these systems require preparation time that simply isn't available on compressed schedules. Their hitters particularly struggle against unfamiliar pitching when they haven't had adequate video review time, while their own pitchers lose the refined game-planning edge that typically gives them an advantage. The psychological element can't be ignored either. Washington's clubhouse culture has emphasized routine and preparation, making them particularly vulnerable when that structure gets disrupted. Players report feeling "off-schedule" in these situations, leading to mechanical breakdowns and poor decision-making. This trend carries the most weight during playoff races and interleague series when the Nationals face unfamiliar opponents with limited preparation time.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Nationals's ATS record as one day rest?

The Washington Nationals have an ATS record of 73-89-0 when playing on one day of rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 45.1% ATS win rate over 162 games.

Is betting on the Washington Nationals as one day rest profitable?

No, betting on the Washington Nationals on one day rest is not profitable. The team has produced a -14.0% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below league average. Most teams perform closer to 50% ATS, while the Nationals' 45.1% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate consistent underperformance in this rest scenario.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.