The data suggests caution when backing the Washington Nationals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Washington Nationals are just 23-83-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -58.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +58.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record23-83-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size106 games
ROI-58.6%
Units Won-62.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-3-00.0%-100.0%
20151-7-00.0%-76.1%
20162-7-00.0%-57.6%
20173-9-00.0%-52.3%
20185-5-00.0%-4.5%
20191-9-00.0%-80.9%
20204-9-00.0%-41.3%
20212-8-00.0%-61.8%
20221-10-00.0%-82.6%
20230-10-00.0%-100.0%
20244-6-00.0%-23.6%

Why This Trend Exists

The Nationals' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a psychological fragility that has plagued the franchise throughout much of its existence. When Washington loses a game, the pressure to bounce back at home creates a burden that often proves too heavy for a team historically known for underperforming in clutch situations. The organization's culture of high expectations paired with inconsistent execution becomes magnified when oddsmakers install them as favorites, creating a perfect storm of overconfidence and underdelivery. This pattern reflects deeper organizational issues around mental toughness and leadership. The Nationals have frequently fielded talented rosters that looked impressive on paper but crumbled under pressure. When coming off a loss, the team's tendency to press rather than trust their process becomes evident, leading to rushed at-bats and defensive lapses. The home crowd's expectations only amplify this pressure, creating a feedback loop where the team tries too hard to deliver immediate results. Bettors should target the Nationals' opponents in these spots, particularly when Washington is favored by moderate margins where the public perception hasn't fully caught up to this systemic weakness. This trend carries the most weight during crucial stretches of the season when playoff implications heighten the psychological stakes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Washington Nationals's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Washington Nationals have a 23-83-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 21.7% ATS win rate across 106 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Washington Nationals as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Nationals as home favorites after a loss is not profitable, with a -58.6% ROI. This trend shows consistent losses for bettors backing Washington in this specific situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the typical league average of around 50% ATS for home favorites. The Nationals' 21.7% win rate in this situation represents one of the worst trends in MLB betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.