The data suggests caution when backing the Toronto Blue Jays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs division opponent, the Toronto Blue Jays are just 127-146-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.2%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record127-146-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size273 games
ROI-11.2%
Units Won-30.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20147-10-00.0%-21.4%
201516-7-00.0%+32.8%
20167-18-00.0%-46.5%
201710-13-00.0%-17.0%
20188-12-00.0%-23.6%
201918-8-00.0%+32.2%
20207-14-00.0%-36.4%
202113-16-00.0%-14.4%
202217-21-00.0%-14.6%
202315-16-00.0%-7.6%
20249-11-00.0%-14.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Blue Jays' struggles against divisional opponents stem from the AL East's unique competitive dynamics and Toronto's roster construction challenges over this period. Playing in arguably baseball's most talent-dense division, the Blue Jays have consistently faced superior pitching depth from teams like Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay, who've invested heavily in developmental systems that produce quality arms. Toronto's approach has often favored offensive firepower over pitching stability, creating mismatches when facing division rivals who know their hitters' tendencies intimately through repeated exposure. The familiarity factor works against Toronto more than most teams because their offensive philosophy has relied heavily on power hitting, which becomes more predictable over multiple series. Division opponents have extensive scouting reports and can exploit the Blue Jays' tendency to struggle against quality breaking balls and situational pitching changes. Additionally, Toronto's home ballpark advantages get neutralized when facing teams that play there 9-10 times per season. Bettors should be particularly cautious backing Toronto as favorites against division opponents, especially in series where they're expected to win based on recent form against non-division competition. This trend carries the most weight during crucial late-season divisional series when playoff positioning is at stake and familiarity reaches its peak.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Toronto Blue Jays's ATS record as vs division opponent?

The Toronto Blue Jays have an ATS record of 127-146-0 when playing against division opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 46.5% ATS win rate over 273 games.

Is betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as vs division opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Toronto Blue Jays against division opponents has not been profitable, showing a -11.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent underperformance against the spread in divisional matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Blue Jays' 46.5% ATS win rate against division opponents is below the typical 50% league average expected for spread betting. Their -11.2% ROI significantly underperforms compared to the break-even point for profitable betting.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.