Toronto Blue Jays Small Underdog (+1 to +3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Toronto Blue Jays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Toronto Blue Jays hold a record of 46-25-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +23.7% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $17 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4-4-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 4-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2016 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2017 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 4-1-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
| 2019 | 6-3-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2020 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2021 | 6-2-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2022 | 5-1-0 | 0.0% | +59.1% |
| 2023 | 5-3-0 | 0.0% | +19.3% |
| 2024 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Blue Jays' exceptional performance as small underdogs stems from their organizational philosophy of aggressive offensive baseball and their ability to capitalize on being undervalued by the market. Toronto's lineup construction typically features multiple players capable of changing games with one swing, creating scenarios where they can quickly erase small deficits that make them slight underdogs. Their hitters historically perform well in pressure situations, particularly when the team feels disrespected by oddsmakers. From a strategic standpoint, Toronto's front office has consistently built rosters with high offensive ceilings, meaning they're rarely as weak as small underdog status suggests. The team's analytics-driven approach to roster construction often results in lineups that can exploit opposing pitching weaknesses, especially when facing teams expected to win narrowly. Additionally, playing in the AL East against powerhouse franchises has conditioned this organization to embrace the underdog mentality and perform with extra motivation when not favored. The psychological element cannot be understated - Toronto players and management have repeatedly demonstrated they respond positively to external doubt. This creates value opportunities for sharp bettors who recognize when the market underestimates Toronto's talent level. This trend carries most weight during divisional matchups and when Toronto faces teams with comparable records but higher public perception.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Toronto Blue Jays's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 46-25-0 ATS record when playing as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This translates to a 64.8% ATS win rate over 71 games in this situation.
Is betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Blue Jays as small underdogs has been highly profitable with a 23.7% ROI from 2014-2024. Their 64.8% ATS win rate in this spot significantly exceeds the break-even threshold needed for profitability.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is exceptional compared to league averages, as most teams hover around 50% ATS and break-even ROI. The Blue Jays' 64.8% ATS rate and 23.7% ROI as small underdogs represents a significant edge over typical market expectations.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.