The data suggests caution when backing the Toronto Blue Jays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as three or more days rest, the Toronto Blue Jays are just 131-162-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -14.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +14.6%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record131-162-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size293 games
ROI-14.6%
Units Won-42.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-16-00.0%-22.2%
201510-12-00.0%-13.2%
20168-18-00.0%-41.3%
201716-13-00.0%+5.3%
201816-10-00.0%+17.5%
201913-14-00.0%-8.1%
202011-13-00.0%-12.5%
202112-15-00.0%-15.2%
202213-19-00.0%-22.4%
202313-13-00.0%-4.5%
20248-19-00.0%-43.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Blue Jays' struggles after extended rest stem from their offensive-heavy identity clashing with the rhythm disruption that comes with layoffs. Toronto has historically built lineups around power hitters who rely on timing and plate discipline, elements that deteriorate more rapidly during breaks compared to pitching mechanics. When hitters lose their timing, the team's run production becomes inconsistent, making it difficult to cover spreads against opponents who maintain sharper fundamentals. Toronto's pitching staff composition also plays a role in this trend. The organization has frequently relied on younger arms and bullpen-heavy strategies that require consistent work to maintain effectiveness. Extended rest periods allow opposing teams to better scout and prepare for Blue Jays pitchers, while Toronto's own arms lose the fine command that comes from regular competition rhythm. The psychological factor cannot be overlooked either. The Blue Jays have operated under significant expectations and media scrutiny, particularly during their competitive windows. Coming off rest, there's often pressure to perform immediately, leading to pressing at the plate and overthinking on the mound. This trend becomes most critical when evaluating Toronto as road favorites after three-plus days off, where the combination of rust and hostile environments creates the most challenging betting scenarios.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Toronto Blue Jays's ATS record as three or more days rest?

The Toronto Blue Jays have an ATS record of 131-162-0 when playing with three or more days rest from 2014-2024. This represents a poor 44.7% ATS win rate over 293 games.

Is betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as three or more days rest profitable?

No, betting on the Toronto Blue Jays with three or more days rest has not been profitable, showing a -14.6% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Blue Jays in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 44.7% ATS win rate is significantly below the expected 50% break-even point and likely underperforms the league average. The -14.6% ROI suggests the Blue Jays consistently struggle to cover spreads after extended rest periods.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.