The data suggests caution when backing the Toronto Blue Jays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Toronto Blue Jays are just 65-342-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -69.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +69.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record65-342-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size408 games
ROI-69.5%
Units Won-282.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20145-24-00.0%-67.1%
20158-28-00.0%-57.6%
20165-32-00.0%-74.2%
20176-36-00.0%-72.7%
20185-30-10.0%-72.7%
20194-25-00.0%-73.7%
20205-29-00.0%-71.9%
202112-34-00.0%-50.2%
20223-29-00.0%-82.1%
202310-40-00.0%-61.8%
20242-35-00.0%-89.7%

Why This Trend Exists

The Blue Jays' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks reveal a franchise caught between expectations and execution. When Toronto enters these spots, they're typically dealing with a perfect storm of inflated public perception and internal pressure that creates poor betting value. The organization's tendency to rely heavily on offensive production means that when bats go cold during losing streaks, the underlying issues don't magically resolve simply because oddsmakers install them as favorites. Toronto's roster construction often features high-variance players who can disappear for stretches, making them particularly vulnerable when public money drives lines based on name recognition rather than current form. The team's historical difficulty with situational hitting becomes magnified under the microscope of favorite status, as opposing pitchers attack more aggressively knowing the Blue Jays are pressing to end their skid. The psychological weight of being favored while riding a losing streak creates a contradiction that this franchise hasn't handled well. Players feel the burden of expectation while simultaneously lacking the confidence that comes with recent success. This trend carries the most significance during divisional play and when Toronto is favored by more than a run, as these spots typically represent the highest public confidence despite the team's demonstrated inability to deliver in these exact circumstances.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Toronto Blue Jays's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Toronto Blue Jays have an ATS record of 65-342-1 (0.0% win rate) when favored after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst ATS trends in baseball over this period.

Is betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Toronto Blue Jays as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks is highly unprofitable with a -69.5% ROI. This trend has lost money consistently, making it a strong fade opportunity.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically bounce back when favored after losing streaks. The Blue Jays' 0.0% ATS win rate in this situation is an extreme negative outlier compared to normal MLB trends.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.