Texas Rangers Home Favorite on Zero Rest Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Texas Rangers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Texas Rangers are just 13-37-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -50.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +50.4%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-9-0 | 0.0% | -65.3% |
| 2015 | 2-5-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2016 | 3-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2019 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2021 | 2-5-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2022 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Rangers' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from a combination of organizational philosophy and roster construction that has consistently favored depth over star power. Texas has historically operated with smaller payrolls, meaning their rotation lacks the ace-level arms who can dominate even when working on short rest. When facing the pressure of being favored at home without adequate recovery time, their mid-tier starters get exposed against lineups that have had time to study their tendencies. The psychological burden of home expectations compounds this issue. Globe Life Park's dimensions and Texas heat create unique conditions that visiting teams often struggle with initially, leading to inflated betting lines when the Rangers are rested. However, on zero rest, these environmental advantages diminish as fatigue affects the home team's ability to capitalize on familiar conditions. The Rangers' offensive approach, traditionally built around patience and working counts, becomes less effective when their own pitching staff is vulnerable and games turn into higher-scoring affairs. Smart bettors should target this spot when the Rangers are moderate home favorites (-130 to -180) facing teams with superior bullpen depth, as these games often become late-inning coin flips where the visiting team holds the advantage.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Texas Rangers's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?
The Texas Rangers have a 13-37-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 26% of these situations. This represents one of the worst ATS performances for any team in this specific scenario.
Is betting on the Texas Rangers as home favorite on zero rest profitable?
No, betting on the Texas Rangers as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable, with a -50.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost roughly half their investment backing the Rangers in these situations.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Rangers' 26% ATS rate and -50.4% ROI in this situation represents an extreme negative outlier.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.