The data suggests caution when backing the Texas Rangers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite, the Texas Rangers are just 41-194-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -66.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +66.7%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record41-194-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size235 games
ROI-66.7%
Units Won-156.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-23-00.0%-71.7%
20155-19-00.0%-60.2%
20163-15-00.0%-68.2%
20173-21-00.0%-76.1%
20184-22-00.0%-70.6%
20194-10-00.0%-45.5%
20208-19-00.0%-43.4%
20213-23-00.0%-78.0%
20221-9-00.0%-80.9%
20231-18-00.0%-90.0%
20245-15-00.0%-52.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rangers' dismal performance as home favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and organizational reality. Texas has operated as a mid-market franchise caught between competitive windows, often overvalued by oddsmakers when playing at Globe Life Field due to home field assumptions that don't align with roster construction. The team's struggles intensify when favored because their inconsistent pitching staff and streaky offense create volatility that works against them when expected to control games. Globe Life Field's climate-controlled environment was supposed to provide competitive advantages, but the Rangers haven't capitalized on these benefits when laying odds. Their bullpen construction has been particularly problematic in favorite spots, where late-game leads become liabilities rather than assets. The franchise's tendency to rely on aging veterans and unproven young talent creates unpredictable performance swings that betting markets consistently misjudge. The psychological pressure of being favored at home appears to amplify the Rangers' existing weaknesses rather than mask them. When expectations are elevated, their inconsistent execution becomes more glaring, leading to the type of disappointing performances that crush both fan morale and bettor bankrolls. This trend matters most during interleague play and against struggling AL opponents when the Rangers are most likely to be overvalued as home favorites.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Texas Rangers's ATS record as home favorite?

The Texas Rangers have a 41-194-0 ATS record as home favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 41 of 235 games. This represents an extremely poor 17.4% ATS win rate over the 11-year period.

Is betting on the Texas Rangers as home favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Texas Rangers as home favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -66.7% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately 67 cents for every dollar wagered on Texas as home favorites.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams cover the spread around 50% of the time as home favorites. The Rangers' 17.4% ATS rate represents one of the worst home favorite trends in MLB over this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.