The data suggests caution when backing the Texas Rangers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Texas Rangers are just 79-365-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -66.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +66.0%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record79-365-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size444 games
ROI-66.0%
Units Won-293.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20148-38-00.0%-66.8%
20157-35-00.0%-68.2%
20167-37-00.0%-69.6%
20175-31-00.0%-73.5%
20187-42-00.0%-72.7%
201910-27-00.0%-48.4%
202012-31-00.0%-46.7%
20216-36-00.0%-72.7%
20223-19-00.0%-74.0%
20235-38-00.0%-77.8%
20249-31-00.0%-57.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rangers' dismal performance as favorites stems from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and organizational reality during their rebuilding years. Texas has consistently been overvalued by oddsmakers who factor in brand recognition and past success rather than current roster construction. The franchise's aggressive teardown following their 2016 division title created a talent gap that betting markets were slow to recognize, leading to inflated favorite status in matchups where they lacked the pitching depth or offensive consistency to justify the role. Texas particularly struggles when favored because their young, inexperienced roster tends to press in games where expectations are elevated. The psychological burden of being expected to win has exposed their lack of veteran leadership and clutch performers. Their pitching staff, built around developing prospects rather than proven commodities, frequently fails to deliver quality starts that favorites typically provide. The Rangers also show a pattern of poor execution in late-inning situations when protecting leads, suggesting mental fragility that becomes magnified in favorite spots. Smart bettors should continue fading Texas as favorites, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds contempt and opponents have extensive scouting reports. This trend carries maximum weight during home games against sub-.500 opponents, where the Rangers' favorite status is most likely to be artificially inflated.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Texas Rangers's ATS record as as favorite?

The Texas Rangers have an ATS record of 79-365-0 as favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 79 out of 444 games. This represents a historically poor 17.8% ATS win rate when favored.

Is betting on the Texas Rangers as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Texas Rangers as favorites is extremely unprofitable with a -66.0% ROI over the 2014-2024 period. This means bettors would lose approximately 66 cents for every dollar wagered on Texas as favorites.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Rangers' 17.8% ATS win rate as favorites is significantly below the expected 50% league average and represents one of the worst favorite ATS performances in MLB. Their -66.0% ROI is substantially worse than typical betting outcomes.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.