Tampa Bay Rays Away Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Tampa Bay Rays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Tampa Bay Rays are just 17-78-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -65.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +65.8%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-7-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 2-9-0 | 0.0% | -65.3% |
| 2016 | 2-5-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2017 | 1-8-0 | 0.0% | -78.8% |
| 2018 | 0-9-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-17-0 | 0.0% | -89.4% |
| 2020 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2021 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 3-7-0 | 0.0% | -42.7% |
| 2023 | 2-5-0 | 0.0% | -45.5% |
| 2024 | 3-5-0 | 0.0% | -28.4% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Rays' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from their organizational philosophy that prioritizes long-term development over short-term reactions. Unlike teams that might overcompensate after a defeat by deploying their best relievers or forcing aggressive lineup changes, Tampa Bay maintains their systematic approach to roster management. This often means continuing with planned rest days for key players and sticking to predetermined pitching rotations, regardless of the previous game's outcome. Tampa Bay's analytical front office builds teams around exploiting favorable matchups at home, where they control variables like bullpen usage and defensive positioning. On the road, these advantages diminish significantly, and when coupled with the psychological weight of a recent loss, the team frequently fails to meet the elevated expectations that come with favorite status. The Rays' younger roster also tends to press in these situations, trying to manufacture runs rather than working counts and waiting for optimal opportunities. The most actionable insight here involves recognizing when Tampa Bay faces division rivals on the road after losses. These emotional matchups amplify the trend's effectiveness, as the Rays struggle to maintain their disciplined approach against familiar opponents who've studied their tendencies extensively. This pattern holds strongest during the middle months of the season when roster fatigue peaks and the Rays' depth advantage becomes less pronounced.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Tampa Bay Rays's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?
The Tampa Bay Rays have an ATS record of 17-78-0 (17.9%) as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst ATS performances in this specific situation across all MLB teams.
Is betting on the Tampa Bay Rays as away favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Tampa Bay Rays as away favorites after a loss is not profitable, with a -65.8% ROI over the past decade. This situation has been consistently unprofitable for bettors backing the Rays.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams perform closer to 50% ATS in similar situations. The Rays' 17.9% ATS rate in this spot is an extreme statistical outlier that suggests consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.