The data suggests caution when backing the Tampa Bay Rays in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as after a win, the Tampa Bay Rays are just 195-214-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -9.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +9.0%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record195-214-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size409 games
ROI-9.0%
Units Won-36.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201412-17-00.0%-21.0%
201518-23-00.0%-16.2%
201626-18-00.0%+12.8%
201718-19-00.0%-7.1%
201812-14-00.0%-11.9%
201918-16-00.0%+1.1%
202021-22-00.0%-6.8%
202125-14-00.0%+22.4%
202215-23-00.0%-24.6%
202319-25-00.0%-17.6%
202411-23-00.0%-38.2%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rays' struggles after victories stem from their organizational philosophy of maximizing every advantage, which ironically works against them in post-win scenarios. Tampa Bay operates with razor-thin margins due to payroll constraints, meaning they often deploy their best relievers and starting pitchers aggressively to secure wins. This leaves them vulnerable the following game when key arms need rest or when they're forced to use lesser bullpen options. The franchise's analytical approach also creates predictable patterns that sharp bettors and opposing teams exploit. The Rays frequently use opener strategies and platoon heavy lineups, but after wins, manager Kevin Cash tends to stick with successful combinations longer than optimal. This rigidity, combined with the team's tendency to face inflated lines due to public perception of their "scrappy overachiever" narrative, creates consistent value on the other side. Tampa Bay's roster construction amplifies these issues, as they rely heavily on depth players who perform inconsistently in back-to-back situations. The team's success often comes from perfect execution of game plans, but the emotional letdown after hard-fought victories disrupts this precision. This trend carries the most weight during divisional series and when the Rays are road favorites, where the combination of travel fatigue and public backing creates the largest line discrepancies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Tampa Bay Rays's ATS record as after a win?

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 195-214 ATS record after a win from 2014-2024, covering the spread 47.7% of the time. This represents 409 total games in this situation over the 11-year period.

Is betting on the Tampa Bay Rays as after a win profitable?

No, betting on the Tampa Bay Rays after a win is not profitable, showing a -9.0% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Rays in this spot over this timeframe.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the typical 50% expectation for ATS records and significantly worse than break-even profitability. The Rays struggle to cover spreads as favorites or in bounce-back spots after victories.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.