St. Louis Cardinals Home Favorite on Zero Rest Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the St. Louis Cardinals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the St. Louis Cardinals are just 9-41-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -65.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +65.6%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-6-0 | 0.0% | -72.7% |
| 2016 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2017 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 2-3-0 | 0.0% | -23.6% |
| 2020 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2021 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2022 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2023 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2024 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Cardinals' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from their organizational philosophy that prioritizes long-term player health over short-term competitive edges. St. Louis has historically been conservative with player usage, often resting key veterans during demanding stretches rather than pushing through fatigue. This approach creates a disconnect between public perception and actual roster deployment - bettors see the Cardinals as favorites at Busch Stadium but don't account for the team's tendency to give regular days off to aging stars or veterans nursing minor injuries. The franchise's emphasis on developing younger players also plays a role, as zero-rest situations often become opportunities to evaluate bench depth rather than maximize win probability. When oddsmakers set lines assuming full-strength lineups, they're not factoring in St. Louis's pattern of strategic rest that can significantly impact offensive production. The psychological element compounds this issue - home crowds expect dominant performances from favored teams, but zero-rest scenarios often produce flat, grinding games that don't meet those elevated expectations. The Cardinals' methodical, small-ball approach becomes less effective when players lack the energy for situational hitting and aggressive baserunning. This trend matters most during summer homestands when temperatures soar and the Cardinals face American League opponents unfamiliar with their conservative roster management style.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the St. Louis Cardinals's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?
The St. Louis Cardinals have a 9-41-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This translates to an 18.0% ATS win rate over 50 games.
Is betting on the St. Louis Cardinals as home favorite on zero rest profitable?
No, betting on the Cardinals as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable, with an ROI of -65.6%. This represents significant losses for bettors following this trend.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is well below the typical 50% league average for ATS betting. The Cardinals' 18.0% ATS win rate in this situation represents one of the worst trends in baseball betting.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.