The data suggests caution when backing the St. Louis Cardinals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the St. Louis Cardinals are just 23-85-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -59.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +59.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record23-85-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size108 games
ROI-59.3%
Units Won-64.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-14-00.0%-57.6%
20151-8-00.0%-78.8%
20160-3-00.0%-100.0%
20173-8-00.0%-47.9%
20181-10-00.0%-82.6%
20191-7-00.0%-76.1%
20202-7-00.0%-57.6%
20215-4-00.0%+6.1%
20220-8-00.0%-100.0%
20233-10-00.0%-55.9%
20243-6-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cardinals' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a perfect storm of psychological and strategic vulnerabilities that compound when playing away from Busch Stadium. St. Louis has historically been a team built on consistency and veteran leadership, but this strength becomes a weakness when facing the dual pressure of bouncing back from defeat while being expected to win on hostile territory. The organization's methodical, fundamentally-sound approach often lacks the explosive offensive capability needed to overcome the psychological weight of being favored after a disappointing performance. Road environments amplify the Cardinals' tendency toward conservative play-calling and risk-averse decision-making, particularly when their confidence is already shaken from a recent loss. The team's reliance on situational hitting and small-ball tactics becomes less effective when pressing to justify their favored status, leading to pressing at the plate and tentative base-running that plays directly into opponents' hands. Sharp bettors should target the Cardinals' opponents in these exact scenarios, especially when St. Louis is laying moderate chalk (-120 to -160) against divisional rivals who know their tendencies well. This trend carries maximum weight during summer months when the grind of the season intensifies mental fatigue and road trips become more taxing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the St. Louis Cardinals's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The St. Louis Cardinals have an ATS record of 23-85-0 (21.3% win rate) as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst ATS trends in baseball over this period.

Is betting on the St. Louis Cardinals as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Cardinals as away favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with a -59.3% ROI. This trend has lost money consistently, making it one to avoid for bettors.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams perform around 50% ATS in similar situations. The Cardinals' 21.3% win rate in this spot is an extreme negative outlier that suggests consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.