The data suggests caution when backing the San Francisco Giants in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the San Francisco Giants are just 14-36-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -46.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +46.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record14-36-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size50 games
ROI-46.5%
Units Won-23.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-6-00.0%-52.3%
20153-5-00.0%-28.4%
20162-2-00.0%-4.5%
20171-3-00.0%-52.3%
20180-3-00.0%-100.0%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
20202-3-00.0%-23.6%
20212-5-00.0%-45.5%
20220-3-00.0%-100.0%
20231-3-00.0%-52.3%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Giants' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from their organizational philosophy that prioritizes player health and long-term development over short-term competitive advantages. San Francisco has historically been conservative with veteran players, often resting key contributors when fatigue becomes a factor, which directly impacts their ability to cover spreads in back-to-back situations where the betting market expects them to dominate. Oracle Park's unique dimensions and wind patterns create additional complications for a team already dealing with fatigue. The Giants' offensive approach, which relies heavily on situational hitting and working deep counts, becomes less effective when players are mentally and physically drained. Their pitching staff, particularly the bullpen, has shown vulnerability in these spots as manager decisions become more predictable and less aggressive. The psychological element cannot be overlooked either. San Francisco players and coaching staff have developed a pattern of underperforming expectations in these specific scenarios, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy where the team fails to match the intensity that oddsmakers and bettors anticipate. This trend becomes most critical when the Giants are substantial home favorites following a lengthy or emotionally draining previous game, particularly against divisional opponents where motivation levels might already be inconsistent.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Francisco Giants's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The San Francisco Giants have a 14-36-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This represents a poor 28% ATS win rate over 50 games.

Is betting on the San Francisco Giants as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the Giants as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable. The trend shows a -46.5% ROI, meaning bettors would lose nearly half their investment following this strategy.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average. Most teams perform around 50% ATS, while the Giants' 28% ATS rate in this situation represents one of the worst trends in baseball.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.