The public often underestimates the San Diego Padres in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the San Diego Padres hold a record of 178-32-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +61.8% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $130 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record178-32-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size210 games
ROI+61.8%
Units Won+129.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201414-4-00.0%+48.5%
201510-4-00.0%+36.4%
201618-2-00.0%+71.8%
201716-5-00.0%+45.5%
201817-1-00.0%+80.3%
201924-3-00.0%+69.7%
202013-4-00.0%+46.0%
202114-0-00.0%+90.9%
202215-3-00.0%+59.1%
202324-4-00.0%+63.6%
202413-2-00.0%+65.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Padres' exceptional performance as home underdogs stems from their ability to thrive when expectations are lowered and external pressure is reduced. San Diego has historically been a franchise that plays better when counted out, with their roster often featuring scrappy veterans and emerging talent who respond well to the chip-on-their-shoulder mentality that comes with underdog status. Petco Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions amplify this advantage, as opposing teams often struggle to generate the offensive output that made them road favorites in the first place. The marine layer and expansive foul territory create conditions where games stay close longer, giving the Padres more opportunities to capitalize on late-game situations where their familiarity with home conditions becomes crucial. The psychological element cannot be understated – when oddsmakers install San Diego as home underdogs, it typically reflects concerns about their starting pitching or recent offensive struggles. However, these perceived weaknesses often prove temporary, while their core strengths like defensive positioning and bullpen depth remain intact. Bettors should target this trend most aggressively during midweek games against division rivals, when the Padres' intimate knowledge of opposing hitters combines with their relaxed approach to create maximum value against inflated road favorite prices.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Diego Padres's ATS record as home underdog?

The San Diego Padres have an ATS record of 178-32-0 as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This represents an exceptional 84.8% ATS win rate over this 10-year period.

Is betting on the San Diego Padres as home underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the San Diego Padres as home underdogs has been extremely profitable with a 61.8% ROI from 2014-2024. This trend shows consistent value when the Padres are getting points at home.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly outperforms the league average, as most teams cover around 50% ATS. The Padres' 84.8% ATS rate as home underdogs is exceptionally high compared to typical MLB betting trends.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.