The data suggests caution when backing the San Diego Padres in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the San Diego Padres are just 17-90-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -69.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +69.7%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record17-90-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size108 games
ROI-69.7%
Units Won-74.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-10-00.0%-82.6%
20153-6-00.0%-36.4%
20161-12-00.0%-85.3%
20170-3-00.0%-100.0%
20182-11-00.0%-70.6%
20192-10-00.0%-68.2%
20201-10-00.0%-82.6%
20211-4-00.0%-61.8%
20221-9-00.0%-80.9%
20234-6-10.0%-23.6%
20241-9-00.0%-80.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Padres' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a toxic combination of psychological fragility and organizational inconsistency that has plagued the franchise for decades. When San Diego loses a game, the mental reset required to bounce back immediately while carrying the pressure of being favored on the road creates a perfect storm of underperformance. The team has historically lacked the veteran leadership and championship culture necessary to compartmentalize losses and refocus quickly. This pattern intensifies on the road where the Padres lose their comfortable Petco Park environment and face hostile crowds while dealing with the added pressure of being expected to win. The franchise's boom-or-bust roster construction, particularly in recent years with high-priced acquisitions like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., creates inflated public expectations that don't always translate to consistent road performance after setbacks. The key insight for bettors is to target the opposing team's runline when the Padres fit this scenario, especially against divisional opponents who know how to exploit San Diego's mental weaknesses. This trend carries the most weight during crucial stretches in July and August when playoff races intensify and the Padres' historical inability to handle pressure becomes most pronounced.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the San Diego Padres's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The San Diego Padres have an ATS record of 17-90-1 (15.7%) as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents one of the worst situational betting trends in baseball over this period.

Is betting on the San Diego Padres as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Padres as away favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with a -69.7% ROI. This trend has resulted in significant losses for bettors over the 10-year span.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is dramatically worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% ATS in situational spots. The Padres' 15.7% cover rate in this situation is an extreme statistical outlier.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.