Yordan Alvarez has been a consistent under performer in total bases when Houston is favored, hitting just 36.4% overs across 11 games with a brutal -30.6% ROI on the over. Despite averaging 3.45 total bases against a 2.59 line, the under presents clear value.
Expert Analysis
The Yordan Alvarez total bases under trend as a favorite reveals a fascinating market inefficiency. While Alvarez averages 3.45 total bases against a 2.59 line—seemingly favorable for overs—the reality is starkly different with just 4 overs in 11 games. This disconnect suggests oddsmakers are overvaluing Alvarez's ceiling in favorable game scripts. When Houston is favored, the Astros often build early leads, potentially reducing Alvarez's plate appearances in blowouts or shifting the offensive approach toward patience rather than aggression. The sample size of 11 games provides meaningful insight without being overwhelming, and the consistency is notable—Alvarez has hit three-game under streaks twice in this span. The +0.9 differential between his average and the line creates a false sense of over value, but the 21.5% ROI on unders tells the real story. Market perception likely inflates these lines based on Alvarez's raw power and the assumption that favorable game conditions equal more offensive output, but the data suggests the opposite dynamic at play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 21.5% under ROI combined with just 36.4% over rate creates a sustainable edge despite the seemingly favorable average-to-line differential. Target this spot when Houston is a moderate to heavy favorite, particularly in day games where offensive outputs tend to be more controlled. The primary risk is a vintage Alvarez multi-hit performance that could single-handedly break the trend, but the consistency favors continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 13.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 9.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Yordan Alvarez's Total Bases prop record as favorite?
Yordan Alvarez is 4-7-0 on total bases overs when Houston is favored, hitting just 36.4% with a devastating -30.6% ROI on over bets. The under side shows 21.5% ROI across 11 games from May 2023 through September 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Yordan Alvarez Total Bases as favorite?
Bet under on Yordan Alvarez total bases when Houston is favored. The 21.5% under ROI and 63.6% under rate create clear value despite his 3.45 average appearing strong against typical 2.59 lines.
What's Yordan Alvarez's average Total Bases as favorite?
Yordan Alvarez averages 3.45 total bases as a favorite against a typical 2.59 line, creating a +0.9 differential. However, this seemingly favorable gap masks the reality that unders hit 63.6% of the time in this situation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Yordan Alvarez total bases unders when Houston is a moderate to heavy favorite, especially in day games. The trend is strongest when the Astros are expected to control the game flow and potentially reduce late-inning aggression.