Yordan Alvarez has hit the home run over in just 40% of his last 10 games, averaging 0.6 homers against typical 0.5 lines. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have lost 23.6%. This suggests consistent underperformance that warrants targeting the under.
Expert Analysis
Yordan Alvarez's recent home run production reveals a clear pattern of underperformance that creates betting value. His 40% over rate across the last 10 games represents a significant deviation from the 50% break-even point needed for standard -110 pricing. The 0.6 average against 0.5 lines appears promising on the surface, but the actual game-by-game results tell a different story. Alvarez has managed just six total home runs in this 10-game span, with a concerning four-game under streak that demonstrates extended power outages. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market has been consistently overvaluing his home run probability, while under bettors have been rewarded with profitable returns. This trend suggests either a temporary power slump, potentially related to mechanical adjustments or opposing pitcher preparation, or market inefficiency in pricing his props. The longest over streak of just two games indicates inconsistent power bursts, while the four-game under streak shows sustained periods where Alvarez fails to connect. Without additional context about matchups or park factors, the raw performance data strongly favors continued underperformance in the home run department.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Yordan Alvarez's 40% over rate and negative ROI on overs indicates the market is overpricing his home run probability. The four-game under streak and inconsistent power display suggest this trend has room to continue. Target unders when lines sit at 0.5, especially in pitcher-friendly environments. Main risk is Alvarez breaking out of his power slump with a multi-homer game that could quickly shift the trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Yordan Alvarez has gone over his home run prop in 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate) with a 4-6 under record. He's currently on a 1-game over streak after enduring a 4-game under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Yordan Alvarez Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Yordan Alvarez home run props. His 40% over rate and -23.6% ROI on overs shows consistent underperformance, while unders have generated 14.6% profits over this 10-game sample.
What's Yordan Alvarez's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Yordan Alvarez is averaging 0.6 home runs over his last 10 games compared to typical 0.5 lines. Despite the slight positive differential, his actual over rate of 40% makes unders the profitable play.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Yordan Alvarez home run unders when lines are set at 0.5, especially in pitcher-friendly parks or against quality starters. His recent 40% over rate suggests the market is overvaluing his power.