Yordan Alvarez's home run prop at home presents one of baseball's most reliable under opportunities, hitting just 14.0% overs across 57 games with a staggering -73.2% ROI on overs. The Astros slugger averages 0.21 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines. This is a clear under lean with strong conviction.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Alvarez struggling to clear home run props at Minute Maid Park despite his reputation as an elite power hitter. His 0.21 home run average at home sits 58% below the standard 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders. This isn't simply bad luck—the sample spans 57 games across multiple seasons, suggesting structural factors at play. Minute Maid's dimensions (315 feet down the left line, 436 to center) may favor Alvarez's opposite-field approach less than road parks. The 13-game under streak demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while his longest over streak maxed at just two games. What makes this particularly compelling is the market's apparent failure to adjust—books continue setting lines that Alvarez fails to reach 86% of the time at home. The +64.1% ROI on unders indicates significant long-term profitability. While regression toward his career norms remains possible, the sample size and consistency suggest this home park disadvantage is real rather than variance.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Alvarez's 86% under rate at home over 57 games represents exceptional value that the market hasn't corrected. His 0.21 average sits well below standard 0.5 lines, creating a mathematical edge that has produced +64.1% ROI. The ideal condition is any home game with a 0.5 line, though even higher lines warrant consideration. The main risk is sample size regression, but the persistence across multiple seasons suggests structural factors favor unders.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs prop record home games?
Alvarez's home run prop record at home is 8-49-0 over/under across 57 games, hitting just 14.0% overs. This represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in baseball, with unders cashing 86% of the time.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Yordan Alvarez Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Alvarez's home run props at home games. His 86% under rate and +64.1% ROI on unders over 57 games creates exceptional value that the market hasn't corrected despite overwhelming evidence.
What's Yordan Alvarez's average Home Runs home games?
Alvarez averages 0.21 home runs per home game, sitting 58% below the typical 0.5 line. This massive differential of -0.29 home runs per game creates consistent mathematical value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Alvarez home run unders during any Astros home game, particularly with 0.5 lines. The trend shows remarkable consistency across multiple seasons, making every home game an opportunity regardless of opponent or recent form.