Yordan Alvarez's home run props present a historically dominant under opportunity, hitting just 21.0% overs across 100 games with a crushing -59.9% over ROI. His 0.28 average sits significantly below the typical 0.51 line, creating consistent value on the under with +50.8% returns.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint an unmistakable picture of market overvaluation on Alvarez's home run props. His 21-79-0 record represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball betting, with books consistently setting lines that ignore his actual production patterns. The 0.28 average against a 0.51 line reveals a fundamental disconnect—Alvarez homers roughly once every 3.6 games, yet the market prices him as if he's launching one every other game. This isn't a small sample anomaly; 100 games provides robust statistical significance. The longest under streak of 13 games demonstrates Alvarez's tendency toward extended power droughts, while his maximum over streak of just 3 games shows limited hot streaks. The current 1-game over streak actually aligns with typical regression patterns after brief power surges. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Alvarez's profile as a contact hitter who generates power through timing rather than raw frequency. His approach creates feast-or-famine home run production that books struggle to properly price, consistently overestimating his daily homer probability.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 79% under rate across 100 games represents exceptional market inefficiency that shows no signs of correction. Books continue overpricing Alvarez's daily homer probability despite overwhelming evidence of lower production. Target unders especially after any multi-homer games when lines typically inflate further, though this prop offers value in virtually any situation given the historical dominance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Yordan Alvarez's Home Runs prop record all games?
Yordan Alvarez's home run props show a 21-79-0 over/under record across 100 games, hitting just 21.0% overs. This represents one of the most dominant under trends in baseball betting with exceptional consistency.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Yordan Alvarez Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Yordan Alvarez home run props with high confidence. The 79% under rate and +50.8% ROI across 100 games shows clear market inefficiency that continues to provide value.
What's Yordan Alvarez's average Home Runs all games?
Yordan Alvarez averages 0.28 home runs per game compared to the typical 0.51 line, creating a -0.23 differential. This gap shows he homers roughly once every 3.6 games versus market expectations of every other game.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Yordan Alvarez home run unders consistently, as the 79% success rate spans all situations. Target especially after multi-homer games when books inflate lines, though this prop offers value in virtually any context.