Xander Bogaerts has delivered catastrophic over results in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of total bases overs while averaging 2.0 bases against a 3.8 line. This -1.8 differential represents a massive underperformance that demands serious under consideration.
Expert Analysis
Bogaerts's total bases collapse reflects a profound offensive regression that extends beyond normal variance. Averaging just 2.0 bases per game against a 3.8 line creates an almost insurmountable gap, suggesting either the market hasn't adjusted to his declining form or underlying factors are suppressing his power output. The 5-game under streak indicates this isn't random fluctuation but sustained poor performance. His -61.8% over ROI demonstrates how punishing backing his overs has become, while the +52.7% under ROI shows consistent value on the opposite side. The 20.0% over rate is extraordinarily low for a player of Bogaerts's caliber, pointing to either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or simply a player in steep decline. Without opposing pitcher matchups or ballpark factors to consider, this trend appears driven by Bogaerts's individual struggles rather than external circumstances. The consistency of the underperformance - hitting under in 8 of 10 games - suggests whatever is causing this regression has staying power. Late-season fatigue could be a factor, but the magnitude of underperformance indicates deeper issues that won't resolve quickly.
Betting Verdict
UNDER - HIGH confidence. Bogaerts's 2.0 average against a 3.8 line creates exceptional under value that the market hasn't fully recognized. The 5-game under streak and 80% under rate demonstrate sustained poor form rather than temporary variance. Target this prop when the line remains inflated above 3.5, as his current production level makes overs nearly impossible. The primary risk is positive regression, but the consistency of underperformance suggests this trend has legs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Xander Bogaerts's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Bogaerts has gone 2-8-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of over bets. He's currently on a 5-game under streak and has averaged only 2.0 total bases per game during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Xander Bogaerts Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Bogaerts's total bases props. His 2.0 average is 1.8 bases below typical lines, creating exceptional under value. The 80% under rate and +52.7% under ROI make this a high-confidence play.
What's Xander Bogaerts's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Bogaerts is averaging 2.0 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 3.8 line, creating a massive -1.8 differential. This represents severe underperformance that continues to offer under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bogaerts total bases unders when lines remain above 3.5 bases. His current 2.0 average makes inflated lines nearly impossible to clear. Avoid when books adjust lines below 2.5, reducing the edge significantly.