Xander Bogaerts has been a total bases under machine at home, going 6-19 (24.0% overs) with a brutal -1.1 differential from his typical 2.58 line. The Padres shortstop averages just 1.44 total bases per home game, creating a profitable under trend with +45.1% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Bogaerts's home struggles stem from Petco Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions and marine layer conditions that consistently suppress offensive output. His 1.44 home average represents a significant departure from his road production, suggesting environmental factors rather than random variance. The 11-game under streak within this sample demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to reach inflated lines that don't account for venue impact. Bogaerts has historically been a gap-to-gap hitter who relies on doubles for total bases accumulation, but Petco's expansive foul territory and deep dimensions neutralize his approach. The persistence of this trend across multiple months indicates oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted his home lines downward. San Diego's offensive struggles at home compound the issue, as fewer RBI opportunities limit his plate appearances in favorable counts. The -54.2% over ROI reflects how dramatically the market has mispriced his home production, while the 76% under rate suggests this isn't a small sample fluke but a genuine edge rooted in ballpark factors and hitting profile mismatch.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 76% under rate and -1.1 average differential create clear value, but regression risk exists given the extreme nature of the trend. Target games against right-handed pitching where Bogaerts faces additional platoon disadvantage, and avoid spots where San Diego's offense shows signs of breaking out. The Petco Park factor provides the foundational edge here.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Xander Bogaerts's Total Bases prop record home games?
Bogaerts is 6-19 on total bases overs in home games (24.0% over rate) with an average of 1.44 total bases compared to his typical 2.58 line, creating a -1.1 differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Xander Bogaerts Total Bases home games?
Lean under on Bogaerts's total bases at home. The 76% under rate and +45.1% ROI provide clear value, though the extreme nature requires caution about potential regression to his true talent level.
What's Xander Bogaerts's average Total Bases home games?
Bogaerts averages 1.44 total bases in home games, sitting 1.1 bases below his typical 2.58 line. This massive differential reflects how Petco Park's dimensions consistently suppress his offensive output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games against right-handed pitching where Bogaerts faces additional platoon disadvantage at home. Avoid spots where San Diego's offense shows momentum or against particularly hittable opposing starters who could inflate the entire lineup.