Xander Bogaerts has been a consistent under performer in home hits props, going 11-17-0 (39.3% overs) with a -0.22 differential versus the typical 1.18 line. The under trend shows strong profitability at +15.9% ROI, making it a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Xander Bogaerts presents one of the more compelling under trends in baseball props, with his home hitting performance consistently falling short of market expectations. Averaging just 0.96 hits per home game against lines typically set at 1.18, Bogaerts creates a meaningful 0.22-hit gap that translates to real betting value. The 39.3% over rate across 28 games represents a substantial sample size that suggests this isn't random variance but a persistent market inefficiency. The trend appears rooted in how oddsmakers price Bogaerts relative to his actual home production, possibly overvaluing his reputation or road splits. What makes this particularly attractive is the consistency of the underperformance - even during his longest over streak of just three games, the market hasn't fully adjusted. The current two-game under streak following a previous seven-game under run demonstrates the pattern's persistence. The -25.0% ROI on overs serves as a warning flag for backing the over, while the +15.9% under ROI shows sustainable profitability. With Bogaerts entering his second season in San Diego, this home park adjustment factor may be more entrenched than temporary, making the under a reliable play when the line sits at typical levels.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Bogaerts's consistent underperformance at home creates a reliable edge, particularly when lines are set at 1.0 or higher. The 0.22-hit differential and +15.9% under ROI provide mathematical support for this lean. Primary risk comes from potential lineup changes or if Bogaerts finds his home stroke, but the 28-game sample suggests this is his baseline level rather than a slump.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Xander Bogaerts's Hits prop record home games?
Bogaerts has gone 11-17-0 on hits props in home games, hitting the over just 39.3% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance against market expectations over a 28-game sample spanning multiple months.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Xander Bogaerts Hits home games?
Bet the under on Bogaerts hits props at home. His 0.96 average against 1.18 lines creates consistent value, with under bets showing +15.9% ROI compared to -25.0% losses on overs.
What's Xander Bogaerts's average Hits home games?
Bogaerts averages 0.96 hits per home game compared to typical lines of 1.18, creating a -0.22 differential. This gap represents the core edge in backing under bets on his home hitting props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bogaerts hits unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher at home games. The edge is strongest during day games or when he's facing quality pitching that aligns with his home struggles.