Willy Adames has been a consistent under performer on total bases props, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.4 differential versus the typical 2.9 line. The under trend shows strong momentum with back-to-back unders and a profitable 14.6% ROI on fade plays.
Expert Analysis
Willy Adames's total bases struggles stem from a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and recent performance reality. Averaging just 1.5 total bases against a 2.9 line represents a massive 48% underperformance that suggests either declining power output or inflated market pricing. The 4-6-0 over/under record tells only part of the story—the consistency of the underperformance is more telling, with Adames failing to reach even modest expectations in 60% of his recent contests. This isn't random variance but a sustained pattern indicating either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or simply a cold streak that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for. The current two-game under streak follows a longer four-game under run earlier in the sample, suggesting this isn't just a brief slump but a more persistent issue. Most concerning for over bettors is that even when Adames does connect, he's not generating the extra-base hit volume needed to clear inflated lines. The 14.6% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, but the market continues to overprice his total bases props. Without additional context on matchup-specific factors or recent injury reports, the raw performance data strongly suggests continued underperformance until proven otherwise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Willy Adames's 1.5 average against 2.9 lines represents a significant market inefficiency that hasn't corrected despite consistent underperformance. The ideal spots are games where his line sits at 2.5 or higher, particularly if facing quality pitching. Main risk is a sudden power surge breaking the pattern, but the consistency of recent struggles suggests this trend has staying power through the sample's conclusion.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willy Adames's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Willy Adames has gone 4-6-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. He's averaging 1.5 total bases against typical lines around 2.9, creating a significant -1.4 differential that has cost over bettors money consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willy Adames Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Willy Adames total bases props. His 1.5 average versus 2.9 lines represents a massive underperformance, and under bets have generated a profitable 14.6% ROI. The consistency of his struggles suggests this trend continues until proven otherwise.
What's Willy Adames's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Willy Adames is averaging just 1.5 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.9. This -1.4 differential represents a 48% underperformance rate, indicating either declining power or significantly overpriced market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Willy Adames total bases unders when his line is 2.5 or higher, especially against quality pitching. His recent cold streak and consistent underperformance make elevated lines particularly attractive, with the best value coming on props priced above his 1.5 recent average.